J.J. Abrams and his Bad Robot production company are closing a new multiyear film and TV overall deal with Warner Bros., per two sources familiar with the negotiations. The details are still being finalized, but one thing is clear: The arrangement will represent a massive pay cut from Abrams’ blockbuster 2019 contract, which cost Warners about $250 million and included incentives for creating film franchises, which never happened. Warner Bros., then owned by AT&T and racing to launch HBO Max and compete in streaming, won the resulting five-year pact after a multi-studio bidding war. John Stankey, then running WarnerMedia, declared he was “delighted” and “extremely excited” about the agreement. 

Today, of course, that Bad Robot deal is considered by many to be the biggest bust of the Peak TV era. Abrams under-delivered (see below), but extracting that kind of money from a deep-pocketed studio is hardly the fault of the talent. The studios? With 20/20 hindsight, some of those overall deals now look downright foolish. The rise of Netflix, the endless supply of cheap debt, and the flawed strategies of legacy media companies fueled the content bubble—not the stars and showrunners who gladly took the millions. Now, as total series on the air have dropped from more than 600 in 2022 to 516 in 2023 to far fewer this year, the once-common $5 million-a-year overall deal for a mid-tier writer-producer has become $1 million, if you can get one at all. Meanwhile, studios are taking stock of the cost of their former largesse.