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Apple, Marvel, and the Great Box Office Fallacy

In a perverse side effect of the streaming age, Hollywood seems unwilling to call a flop a flop. Instead, the question of what is “profitable” or “value-additive” has become convoluted—especially if it involves a pure-play streamer or a Scorsese movie.

Brie Larson in 'The Marvels.'
Brie Larson was on the Today show on Friday to plug her Apple TV+ show and, unless I missed it, didn’t even mention the massive Marvel movie in which she stars and is currently in theaters. That’s cold. Marvel Studios
Matthew Belloni
November 20, 2023

You’ll probably read many articles this week about how much money The Marvels will lose for Disney. The Marvel film, with a budget in the $250 million range, dropped an embarrassing 78 percent in the U.S. in its second weekend, bringing its global gross to about $160 million. This thing will likely top out at less than $200 million in theaters, or, doing the usual math and factoring in the marketing, about $400 million less than the film needs to become “profitable.” Ouch.