As the “Gang of 4” studio executives walked out of SAG-AFTRA talks yesterday, suspending negotiations until who knows when, they may have finally started to understand that not one but two of their worst fears were apparently coming true. First, Hollywood guilds have learned to make strikes work. And second, pattern bargaining, long an AMPTP tool for constraining guild demands in triennial above-the-line negotiations, has instead become a one-way ratchet that sets floors, not ceilings, for the unions. Not surprisingly, the two points are related. 

Did the Writers Guild strike work? In key ways, it did. The WGA got essentially everything the less-restive Directors Guild got, including significantly increased foreign streaming residuals, AVOD/FAST minimums and residuals, and a 5 percent pay bump in the first year—plus the WGA achieved a success-based bonus streaming residual, guarantees on TV staffing and duration of employment, and significant, if flawed, constraints on A.I.  And now the actors want what the WGA got, and then some: a more meaningful bonus streaming residual, an inflation-compensating pay bump, and better guardrails around A.I.