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Bad Boys & The Bummer Summer

Everyone in town is wondering whether ‘Bad Boys: Ride or Die’ will be the latest summer movie to miss on its opening weekend tracking. But what if the tracking, and not the movie, is the problem?

Bad Boys: Ride or Die
The difference between the projected opening weekend gross and the actual debut figure is too often discussed in terms of the movie failing or overperforming, instead of whether the tracking, itself, was incorrect. Photo: Hector Vivas/Getty Images
Scott Mendelson
June 4, 2024

After a miserable May at the box office, Hollywood’s hopes seem pinned on Sony’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die, the Will Smith and Martin Lawrence action sequel out June 7—and the latest faux tentpole in a summer filled with them. But executives won’t only be concerned with the actual performance of a franchise whose most recent entry debuted to $72 million over the long President’s Day weekend in early 2020, right before Covid shut down the world. They’ll also be closely following how Ride or Die performs against its $50 million-$55 million tracking for opening weekend.