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Jan. 27, 2025
What I'm Hearing...
MAX
Matthew Belloni Matthew Belloni
Welcome back to What I’m Hearing, still in L.A. and not Park City, though I’m looking at my upcoming travel schedule—New York, Palm Beach, Las Vegas, and back to NYC—and setting meetings, so let’s get together if I’m near you soon. First off, yes, that was Disney’s Dana Walden dining with Kamala Harris (and their spouses) at Craig’s on Saturday night. I suppose it’s no surprise that the longtime friends, who worked hard to downplay their relationship as Harris ran for president and Walden oversaw ABC News and a controversial debate, would socialize together openly now that Harris lost. But Hollywood people—and especially Walden, who expertly manages her image—know that Craig’s isn’t like most restaurants, even in West Hollywood. You sit in those front-room booths because you want to be seen, because you want people to come over, because you want to hold court. Did the power couples discuss any potential business? I doubt it, but a Disney rep declined to comment. 🚨 Programming note: This week on The Town, Lucas Shaw and I picked our horses in the 2025 Box Office Draft and debated whether Netflix can keep growing, Recording Academy C.E.O. Harvey Mason Jr. explained why the Grammys bailed on CBS for ABC, and THR’s Steve Zeitchik and I offered five Oscar nomination narratives. Subscribe here and here. Not a Puck member yet? Click here. Got a news tip or an idea for me? Just reply to this email or message me on Signal at 310-804-3198. Mentioned in this issue: Bob Iger, Bryan Lourd, Blake Lively, John Branca, Orin Snyder, Peter Micelli, Timothée Chalamet, David Zaslav, Shonda Rhimes, Doug Emhoff, Greta Gerwig, M. Night Shyamalan, more Michael Jackson, and… notes on the Melania doc. But first…
 

Who Won the Week: Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos

Have any executives ever flexed harder in a week than the Netflix co-C.E.O.s? A record 19 million new quarterly subscribers, topping 300 million worldwide, a stock price flirting with $1,000 per share, more than five times its recent low in 2022, and as a cherry on top, Emilia Pérez scored 13 Oscar noms, the most of any film. Netflix is basically the Nvidia of Hollywood—oh wait… [checks today’s A.I. news]… scratch that. Runner-up: Shonda Rhimes, for her Bridgerton landing atop the Nielsen year-end chart for original streaming series with 21.4 billion minutes viewed in 2024, about 5 billion more than Love Is Blind, number two on the list despite having released four times as many episodes as Bridgerton… A little more on that… Few surprises in Nielsen’s annual streaming ratings report. Moana and the Disney/Universal stalwarts again dominated the movies chart (with a dash of Amazon’s Red One, thanks to that massive marketing campaign and a short, anger-inducing theatrical window). Bluey, Grey’s Anatomy, and the regular rerun autoplays again filled the “acquired” series list, with special kudos to Max for its surprising unwillingness to license seventh-place The Big Bang Theory to other platforms. And the original series chart featured three Prime Video shows, none of which has a huge library of episodes, which has to be considered a win for Amazon…
Honorable mention: Little House on the Prairie, which was canceled in 1983, generated more than 13 billion minutes of viewing on Peacock. Thirteen billion. In 2024.
 

Quote of the Week

“It tells the story of a trans woman who is an heiress to the biggest baguette producer in France and who falls in love with Agtugo Ratatouille, the trans heir to the biggest croissant company in France.” —The logline for Johanne Sacreblu, a scathing short-film send-up of Oscar frontrunner Emilia Pérez filled with stereotypes about France, starring only Mexican actors, and directed by a Mexican trans woman. It’s at 21,000 views on Letterboxd and counting, so check it out here before Netflix pays $10 million for worldwide rights and destroys it.
 

CAA v. Range: The Antitrust Argument

One of the odd wrinkles in the legal battle between CAA and the quintet of agents who defected to become managers at Range Media Partners is how many CAA folks are actually rooting for the Range guys. Not because they particularly like Peter Micelli, Jack Whigham, Dave Bugliari, Michael Cooper, or Mick Sullivan. Or even because they think that the Range partners calling themselves managers is particularly kosher, given that they often compete with agents. It’s because the current CAA rank and file look at the hellfire their bosses Bryan Lourd, Richard Lovett, and Kevin Huvane unleashed on employees who dared leave for a non-CAA-approved business endeavor and ask, Could that be me? If, as alleged in the dual-track litigation, Hollywood’s biggest and most powerful agency can just unilaterally wipe out equity earned by employees over decades because its leadership decides Range is “competitive,” what does that mean for any CAA agent who wants to exit without being quasi-placed in one of CAA’s preferred (and non-threatening) post-CAA roles? And is that de facto vice grip anticompetitive?
A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR
The Penguin
The Penguin
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Those issues come up publicly and explicitly for the first time in Range’s motion to dismiss the CAA lawsuit, filed tonight by Range litigator Orin Snyder and a team at Gibson Dunn. According to the filing, “this unlawful cancellation of equity sent a chilling message to both current and former employees: contractual agreements and legal protections at CAA were secondary to the whims and greed of its leadership.” (A CAA rep declined to comment.) If you remember, CAA sued Range in October claiming the company, launched in 2020, is an “unlicensed talent agency built on deceit,” that the defectors stole proprietary data, and that Range “engages in lucrative transactions foreclosed to law-abiding talent agencies.” The suit has exposed the often murky distinction between agents and managers, and came as CAA was also battling the Range partners individually in arbitration over whether they had forfeited their equity by violating a non-competition agreement. That arbitration is set for March. In the new motion to dismiss, Range attempts to shoot down CAA’s claims, asking why the agency waited four years to file suit, noting that CAA still shares a number of clients with Range, and arguing that non-competes are illegal in California and “also clearly do not apply because the employees had left the agency business entirely and were now working as managers, a distinct role.” Range also calls out Lourd and the CAA leaders, who are acting “emotionally, punitively, and vindictively.” So… like agents, I guess. But Range also argues that CAA has worked over the past decade to reduce competition in the representation business, via both its allegedly predatory TV packaging business, which was eventually outlawed by the Writers Guild, and its 2023 purchase of ICM Partners, among other, smaller agencies. That ICM deal, valued at $750 million, was scrutinized over antitrust concerns before being approved. CAA later sold a majority stake to luxury mogul François-Henri Pinault in a deal that valued the agency at $7 billion. “For an agency that professes to support talent, it’s ironic that CAA is now attempting to reduce choice in the industry,” Snyder told me tonight. “At the same time, CAA is sending a clear message to all of its agents that their hard-earned vested equity could be taken away forever at the whim of the agency.”
 

My Reading List…

Bob Iger’s 2024 pay as Disney C.E.O. jumped to a perfectly normal, totally reasonable $41 million. For those keeping score, Iger has now pocketed packages worth $87 million since un-retiring in late 2022. [L.A. Times] Former second gentleman Doug Emhoff (I really hope that’s on his business card) has joined Willkie Farr & Gallagher, in part to handle matters with “significant reputational concerns.” That firm just happens to represent Blake Lively in the Justin Baldoni mess. Hmmm. [DealBook] While most of the media obsesses over whether there’s a token conservative on a CNN panel watched by fewer people than receive What I’m Hearing, Bloomberg broke down the scope of influence of “Manosphere” podcasters and YouTubers this cycle. [Bloomberg] Brandon Katz makes the case for Netflix giving a few movies each year the Greta Gerwig treatment. [Observer] Comcast is joining DirecTV in launching a $70 sports bundle, but without the Warner Discovery networks, so no Savannah Bananas baseball or All Elite Wrestling. [Next TMT] Michael Schulman has an interesting history of the four times the Oscars have been postponed, including for an L.A. natural disaster. [New Yorker] The SNL50 content machine is becoming a bit much, but this list of castmembers picking their favorite castmembers is delightful. [GQ] A jury cleared M. Night Shyamalan and Servant studio Apple of infringing the copyright of an obscure 2013 movie called The Truth About Emanuel, finding that none of the defendants had the required “access” to a movie that made just $4,000 in theaters. Just asking: If I were a famous director and wanted to copy a movie, wouldn’t I pick a tiny indie that nobody would realize I copied?? [Copyright Lately] A rare, non-hysterical take on the Brutalist A.I. “controversy.” [Slate] Paul Rudnick has some notes on Amazon’s Melania documentary: “Use clip of her smiling, but crop out Putin and Chernobyl.” [New Yorker] Now, Scott’s eulogy for the Oscar box office bump…
The Oscar Lift That Isn’t

The Oscar Lift That Isn’t

Sure, Oscar nominations can give any individual movie a boost—e.g., last year’s ‘The Zone of Interest’—but unless a big mainstream hit is catching a lucrative second wind, the post-noms war is largely waged on streaming platforms.
Scott Mendelson Scott Mendelson
In the old days, Oscar season used to feature one or two mainstream films that would score a handful of nominations, expand into wide release, and do big numbers. American Hustle, The Revenant, and Hidden Figures, for instance, all ultimately landed in $155 million to $185 million territory. This past weekend, however, just days after the nominations for the 97th Academy Awards were announced, the box office was objectively meh, totaling just $66 million in domestic revenue. Part of the explanation is that this year’s holiday holdovers aren’t as big as a Star Wars or an Avatar, but there’s also a conspicuous absence of an Oscar contender with broad appeal. The earnings from those mainstream winners are the difference between pre- and post-Covid box office, when big movies—ones that didn’t need awards attention to succeed—pulled down a handful of nominations to push them over the top and boost total gross during the first months of the year. Indeed, this weekend’s box office is down 46 percent from the same period in 2020, which was also the last time one of those bigger movies got an awards season boost: Sam Mendes’ World War I thriller 1917 raced to $159 million in North America and $384 million worldwide on a $95 million budget. That year’s eventual best picture winner, Parasite, earned $53 million in North America, a near-record domestic amount for a non-English-language feature, and $262 million worldwide. Just one year earlier, best picture winner Green Book earned more than $320 million worldwide, including $71 million in China. The closest thing we’ve had to a mainstream Oscar season breakout hit since the beginning of the Covid pandemic was Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things, which earned $111 million worldwide in late 2023 and early 2024 and won Emma Stone her second Oscar for best actress. This season, judging by the first post-noms weekend, the only two Oscar bump beneficiaries are Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown, the Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet, and A24’s epic The Brutalist, starring Adrien Brody. A Complete Unknown lost 490 theaters after playing in 2,500 over the M.L.K. weekend, but box office fell just 17 percent, for a $3.1 million fifth weekend and $63 million domestic so far. Meanwhile, The Brutalist added 780 theaters for a total of 1,118, and earned $2.8 million (+46 percent week over week), bringing its domestic total to $9.33 million. More modest Oscar nomination bumps included Paramount’s September 5, which was snubbed for best picture but earned $770,000 (+120 percent) in 394 theaters, while surprise best picture nominee I’m Still Here earned $240,000 (+117 percent) in 17 theaters. A Real Pain added $76,000 (+27 percent) in 180 theaters, but it’s already available on V.O.D. and Hulu, diluting the nomination benefits. If studios are releasing a potential mainstream contender like Conclave or last season’s The Holdovers partially to capitalize on potential Oscar recognition, having those films on the same short theatrical-to-V.O.D. pipeline can be self-defeating.

A New Paradigm

Of course, shorter theatrical windows generally do not clip the wings of successful releases. But it’s no coincidence that the two main beneficiaries this season (at least after one weekend) are still exclusive to theaters. Buzzy sleepers Anora and Conclave boast 14 Oscar noms between them, but they were released earlier in the fall and have been available at home for months. As IndieWire’s Tom Brueggemann noted on Monday, the films participating in this year’s Oscar competition are well-represented amid the various V.O.D. platforms, such as Fandango at Home and iTunes. Amusingly, one major contender that hasn’t received much of a bump is Emilia Pérez: The musical, which netted the most noms of any film with 13, has grossed only $11 million worldwide, and it has been M.I.A. on the Netflix top 10 domestic viewership chart since its mid-November streaming launch. (Netflix has the film only in North America and the U.K.) The awards season is being redefined as an inevitably gloomy part of early winter, when moviegoers catch up on nominated films via V.O.D. platforms and streamers. Studios might not mind this, but theaters surely do.
A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR
Hacks
Hacks
For your consideration: Max presents the Emmy® Award-winning, SAG, PGA, and WGA nominated HBO Original Series Hacks. Starring Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder, the new season continues to explore the ever-complicated and always-hilarious relationship between Deborah Vance and Ava Daniels. Don’t miss the series The Ringer calls “THE BEST COMEDY ON TV.” Now streaming on Max.
The decline in awards season box office is partially about shifting audiences habits, and what’s now considered theater-worthy—whether audiences will leave the house even to see a Steven Spielberg–directed musical or a Will Smith–starring sports biopic that they’ll be able to watch at home in a month or two. In fact, any number of the previous decade’s Oscar season breakouts—Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, Silver Linings Playbook, or La La Land—would probably struggle theatrically today. The notion of mainstream Oscar contenders like A Beautiful Mind, Black Swan, or The Shape of Water platforming as early as October or as late as December and then expanding to blockbuster-sized business in January also may be a relic of the recent past. But there’s still something to be said for releasing films late in the year and chasing awards season glory. Say what you will about the Oscars, but Hollywood’s big night is one of the last reasons so-called major studios still bother putting adult-skewing, prestige-chasing mid-budget movies in theaters.
 

The Feedback

The Michael Jackson superfans/bots didn’t love my Thursday report on the extraordinary Jackson estate misstep that put the ‘Michael’ movie in jeopardy. But others had more thoughtful responses… “Wow. Well written. As someone who has been working on this movie for the last year, reading your story has helped fill in some of the gaps in what I knew about its current status. In all honesty, this movie will absolutely be one to see on the big screen… I just hope it gets there.” —A crewmember “Graham King and everyone involved got exactly what he deserved. Jumping into bed with Michael Jackson and John Branca is asking to get fucked… The only surprise is that Graham would think this wouldn’t blow up in his face.” —A producer “My mind is boggling… Summaries of potential liabilities with respect to any real person mentioned in a screenplay is a hallmark of clearance review… What amateur hour.” —A lawyer “Couldn’t happen to nicer people. 😂” —Another producer
 

Finally…

Interest in Disney’s delayed Snow White is lagging well behind its most recent live-action remake, The Little Mermaid, according to the latest early film tracking chart from The Quorum…
Have a great week, Matt Got a question, comment, complaint, or want to sign the “Stay in L.A.” petition? Click here or email me at Matt@puck.news or call/text me at 310-804-3198.
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