Welcome back to What I’m Hearing+, coming to you live from St. Petersburg, Florida. Last week, my Puck partner Matt Belloni previewed some of Netflix’s post-Stuber film strategy as former Rideback C.E.O. Dan Lin takes over as chairman. Tonight, I offer a deeper dive into what has worked for the O.G. streamer in the past, and what might inform Lin’s strategy moving forward.

But first…

• Amazon’s new surprise hit: Have you heard of Hazbin Hotel? The new Prime Video series, which is also A24’s first animated show, has enjoyed one of the strongest debuts of an animated project ever on the platform, I’m told by a source familiar with the situation. The show also has an increasingly common backstory: Hazbin’s pilot debuted on YouTube a couple of years ago after a successful Kickstarter campaign.

  Not long ago, after the heights of BoJack Horseman, Netflix cut back on adult animation, and the industry followed. But now, I wonder, is a resurgence upon us? Consumption affinity data from Parrot Analytics, where I work as director of strategy, suggests there is a strong viewership overlap with Amazon’s animated show Invincible. Separately, the performance of Rick and Morty last quarter led Adult Swim to achieve its “largest year-over-year primetime delivery growth” among young audiences, according to WBD’s most recent earnings report. No numbers, sure, but could adult animation be gaining new traction?

But there are plenty of Netflix original films that don’t rise to that level—more than plenty, actually. Scott Stuber, the outgoing film chief, made something like 80 movies last year, and many of them weren’t cheap. At that level of output, not every film can rack up hours viewed simply by being at the top of the carousel on the Netflix homepage. For example, Zack Snyder’s Rebel Moon, which reportedly cost $166 million, was a flop. Others, like 2021’s Don’t Look Up, have been critical and commercial hits. But Don’t Look Up feels like the exception that proves the rule: As much as Netflix films are watched, few are loved let alone remembered.

But things are likely to change under incoming film chief Dan Lin. As my partner Matt Belloni noted last week, Netflix is switching gears for a number of strategic reasons, including consumption data that indicates, unsurprisingly, that series are more valuable than films (more hours, more easily bingeable units, etcetera). Matt also expects Lin will be making about 20-30 movies a year for Netflix, or less than half the annual Stuber output. Most importantly, however, the company aims to become more discriminating: It will still gladly shell out money, sure, but the Lin era promises to focus on quality over quantity. (Cue the famous Ted Sarandos HBO analogy…)

Let’s be clear: The cheaper rom-com, holiday films, and teen dramas won’t disappear. Those films draw stronger returns on investments. But as Netflix looks to differentiate itself going forward, the company will need to find ways to be big and be memorable, especially when it comes to global audiences.

You can almost see rival executives rolling their eyes. Quality over quantity—simple, right? But there are a handful of specific, tactical decisions that Lin and chief content officer Bela Bajaria can make over the coming year to maximize Netflix films’ cultural resonance and audience engagement. They can also lean on licensed content in order to focus on developing more franchise plays of their own. Herewith, a data primer for the Lin regime: what he’s likely to do, and what he should do in Netflix’s less-is-more era.

Last year, there were a handful of positive lessons from Netflix’s original film slate (13 of which cracked Nielsen’s 25 most watched list for streaming), according to my friend Entertainment Strategy Guy. Notably, according to Nielsen, action films like The Mother and Extraction 2 dominated in terms of hours. Comedies, like Kenya Barris’s You People, were also well-represented. The data isn’t too surprising—big action movies and sequels dominate the box office, too, and these films also have global appeal. International audiences, especially those in non-English-speaking countries, still seek out localized film, but a star-driven movie whose appeal relies less on dialog and more on punches and CGI explosions can theoretically travel much easier. (For more evidence, look no further than the foreign films that have become hits in the U.S.—insane fight scenes and set pieces are a near-requirement.)

Of course, there’s room for improvement. In my conversations with clients, I am inevitably asked: Why are people coming to my platform and not a competitor’s? The answer is complicated, but what’s becoming evident is that quantity, even if it signals “new,” is not what consumers value in a subscription product. Netflix needs to do a better job of emphasizing the quality of its original films, especially as output begins to slow.

Netflix also needs to get better at anticipating demand for certain genres and titles—especially when unproven I.P. is involved. The number of glossy sci-fi films has increased exponentially in the streaming era because it reflects what audiences are seeking in theaters. But that oversaturation—and the lack of theater-style perks, like Imax screens and Dolby Atmos sound—means these big swings don’t always land. Flops like Rebel Moon sting so badly because they suggest a misunderstanding of the audience and a not-so-subtle marketing failure.

Scarcity, strategic licensing, and branding need to be the guiding principles of Netflix’s evolving film strategy. As Disney C.E.O Bob Iger said during a recent investor conference, sometimes it's necessary to make hard cuts. This is especially true in an era of brand protection, where the major difference between free programming on FAST platforms (like Tubi) and AVOD platforms (like YouTube) is access to star talent, brand, and perceived value.

Lin knows how to execute the first two pillars. His films at Rideback—where he has turned established I.P. into theatrical hits with long tails—have amassed more than $3 billion at the global box office. Sherlock Holmes and The Lego Movie perform at 10.5x and 14x the average demand of all other films in the United States, according to Parrot. Lin has also produced for international audiences. His latest for Netflix—an adaptation of the Nickelodeon series Avatar: The Last Airbender—was the top title in most Netflix territories during its first weekend. While his Haunted Mansion was a flop for Disney, his previous big movie, It: Chapter 2, grossed $473 million globally on a $75 million budget, and remains one of the 50 most in-demand movies on Max, according to Parrot. These types of movies enjoy extended value for distributors, who can repackage them for licensing, and play across borders.

When we examine what has worked well historically for Netflix’s international slate, there are films with universal appeal and Oscar buzz, like All Quiet on the Western Front, which was nominated for several Oscars last year; fictionalized telling of true stories, like the recent Society of the Snow; and horror-fantasy films like Troll. I like to say there are ways of getting two bites out of the same apple: Spanish-speaking titles travel to more countries because it’s a dominant language, while films within the action and thriller genres travel more easily than culturally specific content, like comedies.

Of course, Lin’s debut is not going to immediately shift Netflix’s approach to theatricality and licensing. But as Netflix finds sturdy ground with licensed titles (DC), Pay-One deals (with companies like Sony), and films with stronger marketing campaigns (like The Meg 2), Lin can focus on discovering the right I.P. to make movies that overlap with those audience interests, among others.

But I’d also recommend creating a sub-label that focuses on the auteur-driven award hopefuls. Netflix has the lowest hit rate, a measure of sentiment for films, of all the streamers, according to Parrot; about 64 percent rank as “Average,” which aligns with IMDb user ratings. Directors like Yorgos Lanthimos, The Daniels, and Sofia Coppola want their name attached to studios that represent quality. More than 60 percent of people who go see an A24 movie do so just because it has the A24 branding, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Could a new sub-brand bring talents like these into Netflix, and make its films required viewing for the A24 crowd? Lin has specifically said he wants to work with auteurs, and creating a sub-label that resembles Searchlight or Focus Features will go a long way toward enticing those creators, and bestowing an extra layer of quality upon the brand’s commercial interests. If Netflix is ever going to become the movie studio of the next century, it’s going to require treating its film division as more than an output machine.