For your awards consideration Max Presents: The HBO Original HOUSE OF THE DRAGON. Following King Aegon II’s coronation and the death of Queen Rhaenyra’s son, House Targaryen is divided in two. In King’s Landing, Aegon II rules from the Iron Throne, supported by Alicent and the Green Council, under the protection of the largest dragon in Westeros. From exile on Dragonstone, Queen Rhaenyra and her Black Council consider their next move. Civil war looms as both sides seek support from the great houses of Westeros, ultimately amassing armies — and dragons. Don’t miss the series Variety calls “TV’s GREATEST SPECTACLE”. Now streaming on MAX.

The overall total for the domestic box office in 2024 came in at around $8.7 billion, down just 3 percent from last year’s Nolan-Robbie-Cruise-adjusted $8.9 billion cume. Not only was the Christmas weekend off only 14 percent from the pre-pandemic era, but the frame amplified a decidedly strong second half for the theatrical industry. After all, the first five months of the year—acutely battered by strike delays and facing an oft-barren slate—were down 23 percent from 2023. But once the movies showed up, from Bad Boys: Ride or Die to Sonic the Hedgehog 3, the period from June through December was up around 9 percent year over year. Of course, the total was still well below the $11 billion-plus annual hauls that Hollywood grew accustomed to in the late 2010s. But paramount among the reasons for tempered optimism here: The current predicament has as much to do with supply as demand. Following the heights of the superhero era, Hollywood had to construct an entirely new playbook—discovering (or rediscovering) that, for instance, top-tier box office can result from big films aimed at women (and not just stereotypically male-centric genre films with a female lead). The studios behind The Fall Guy and Gladiator II were banking on women showing up to watch Ryan Gosling and Paul Mescal, respectively. And the industry didn’t need men to turn out for Blake Lively in It Ends With Us or Ariana Grande in Wicked: Part One. Yes, Disney lorded over its competition this past year, but studios offered a veritable cornucopia of counterprogramming, whether by intent or post-strike cupboard-cleaning necessity, or both. Besides the sky-high grosses for Dune: Part Two and Wicked: Part One, we saw good-to-great showings from smaller-scale, less conventional event films, like the aforementioned It Ends With Us and Longlegs, many of which helped fill in the gaps between periodically underwhelming tentpoles. After M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap underperformed in early August and Badlands outright tanked, Blake Lively’s blockbuster melodrama and Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage’s thriller mitigated the damage. The industry erred by resting October entirely on the shoulders of one killer clown sequel, but Terrifier 3 was nonetheless up to the challenge.

This new year has been pitched as the first time since 2020 that we will see something approximating a pre-Covid slate of feature releases. Offhand, we’ve got a few more Marvel and DC movies, another Jurassic World, follow-ups to Zootopia and Avatar, and sequels to more recent franchise successes like Wicked and M3GAN. There’s also plenty of optimism for less franchise-minded likely breakouts, including the sure-to-be-controversial Michael Jackson biopic (Michael) and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, starring Michael B. Jordan. Alongside this return to semi-normalcy, distributors have come to recognize a theatrical release as creating added value for streaming, rather than as a rival channel. With a likely full slate, presuming Amazon somewhat compensates for the lack of a fully functioning 20th Century Studios, the likes of AMC and Cinemark can finally do their thing without one hand tied behind their backs. Two of last year’s key patterns are instructive. Firstly, films of all shapes and sizes displayed post-debut staying power far above what would have been expected in pre-Covid times. For instance, Longlegs and The Fall Guy earned out more than three times their respective opening weekends. The hope is that, even amid shrinking exclusivity windows, audiences are reacclimating to seeing a movie when they get around to it, and post-debut buzz can help long after opening weekend. At the same time, several titles earned more domestically than expected while posting only modest receipts overseas. Twisters earned $270 million in North America, but just $375 million worldwide. The family-skewing If made $111 million domestically but only $190 million globally. Of course, global earnings become less crucial if budgets are small and/or domestic grosses are large enough. Wicked: Part One, for instance, cost $145 million and might top $500 million stateside, so its current 67-33 domestic/overseas split isn’t exactly a catastrophe. With China rarely pitching in and more Hollywood I.P.s skewing domestic in terms of interest and nostalgia, budgets should reflect a global earnings split closer to 50-50 than the pre-Covid standard 35-65 moving forward. The decline in once-dominant genres and studios’ reliance on past-their-prime brands and franchises are still cause for concern. That’s to say nothing of a generation more addicted to YouTube and video games than to traditional longform entertainment—a challenge exacerbated by an industry dedicated more to convincing kids that Indiana Jones is still cool than to offering of-the-moment, youth-skewing franchises like Five Nights at Freddy’s. And then there are the other macroeconomic challenges: The top six grossers of the year comprised 32 percent of the annual theatrical revenue, up from 28 percent last year, continuing a decade-long trend toward consolidation around a handful of all-encompassing event movies. And that’s without even contemplating the unknowns at Paramount and WBD. Cautious optimism aside, it’s hard to picture the industry rebounding to 2000s and early 2010s levels in terms of ticket sales. Even the reported $2.2 billion-plus in expected—and long overdue—upgrades to the multiplex experience are as much about maximizing revenue per customer as they are about attracting new business. However, the aspirational Christmas box office should presage a continued and permanent theatrical recovery. The positive grosses and varied slate together approach a platonic ideal of what the movie theater is supposed to represent, both commercially and culturally. Time will tell if it’s the start of a happily ever after or a false-hope finale before a darker, grittier sequel.

Thanks to Scott. I’ll be back on Monday to officially usher you into 2025. See you then. Matt

Puck founding partner Matt Belloni takes you inside the business of Hollywood, using exclusive reporting and insight to explain the backstories on everything from Marvel movies to the streaming wars.

Lauren Sherman, a former top executive at Business of Fashion, is the preeminent fashion journalist of her generation. Line Sheet offers incisive reportage on all aspects of the industry and its biggest players. Every Wednesday, Lauren is joined by the beauty industry’s leading reporter, Rachel Strugatz, who writes the definitive guide to what’s happening across the category, from M&A to executive shuffles.

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